CO129-508-13 Employment of British and Indian troops stationed at Hong Kong 31-12-1927 - 20-8-1928 — Page 26

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3.

It is impossible to forecast what the precise

position may be in China six months' hence: but it is quite

safe to say that for a long time to come there will be

chaos, anarchy and civil war over very extensive regions.

The situation in Kuangtung has very appreciably deteriorated

during the past few weeks and there is every prospect of

civil war between the militarists of Kuangtung and Kuang-hsi 30040/2Provinces. Even apart from this, for the reasons stated in no71 my secret despatch of 3rd October, I am firmly of opinion

that the minimum, permanent garrison of the Colony of Hong Kong should be four battalions and that, if possible, all

four should be British.

4.

The situation at Shanghai and along the

Yangtsze valley is still of a most menacing character: and,

even though it might become possible for the British

Authorities directly responsible for the safety of British lives and property in that area, to recommend later on some reduction in the Shanghai Defence Force, I am convinced that for many years to come it will be necessary to retain at least one British battalion in Shanghai.

5.

Weihaiwei is a British Colony which geographically speaking forms part of Shantung, once a rich and populous Chinese province, but now reduced to desolation by the barbarities of its War Lord, Marshal Chang Ch'ung- chang, and by the ravages of brigands. During the year now current about one million of the despairing peasantry of Shantung emigrated from their native province and went chiefly to Manchuria. I cannot conceive that the rendition

of Weihaiwei under such circumstances could even be discussed

by His Majesty's Government. It would be a most inhuman act

to withdraw